Could you imagine if the strike never happened? We’d be looking at an Oppenheimer vs. Dune: Part Two ultimate showdown. It’d be like Kong vs. Godzilla but with better everything. Anyway, the strike did happen, the sand worms were delayed from the fall, and Denis Villeneuve’s masterpiece will have to wait until next year. Let’s talk about this Sunday’s Academy Awards, which will be dominated by another masterwork — the aforementioned Christopher Nolan instant classic.
Look, everyone and their mother’s brother’s cousin’s nephew’s doctor’s worst patient is writing a predictions piece. I’m doing it anyway, but I won’t write a whole entire long-winded story about the politics of why I think the winners will win, and why the losers will, well, go home empty. I will say this — I expect Paul Giamatti to upset for Best Actor over Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer. I just have a gut feeling. Other than that, expect a night of few surprises. Nolan deserves to win. This should be his night. Give him another Best Director Oscar for The Dark Knight while you’re at it. OK — here’s my predictions in every category.
Best Picture
Will and Should Win: Oppenheimer
Possible Upset: A Shakespeare In Love win for Barbie? Nah.
Best Director
Will and Should Win: Christopher Nolan
Possible Upset: I only see Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) or Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) as real competition, and even that is a longshot. Nolan won the Director’s Guild and everything else.
Best Actress
Will Win: Lily Gladstone should win Best Supporting Actress but she’s here in the lead actress category and she’s got momentum.
Should Win and Could Upset: Emma Stone gave a career best performance in Poor Things. While it wouldn’t shock me if she won, Gladstone’s win is much more meaningful, and a way to honor Killers of the Flower Moon and its 972-minute running time.
Best Actor
Will Win: Paul Giamatti by a hair over Cillian Murphy. I’m nuts I know — I just think he’s going to get the sentimental vote for his career achievement, and besides his performance is just terrific.
Should Win: Any other year, I’d give it to Giamatti but Murphy is in every scene and holds it all together. He’s mesmerizing.
Could Upset: This is a race between Giamatti and Murphy — do they cancel themselves out and Colman Domingo, Bradley Cooper or Jeffrey Wright slide in? Nah.
Best Supporting Actress
Will and Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has won every single critics award for her role in The Holdovers and deservedly so. She’s heartbreaking, commanding, and brilliant.
Could Upset: Emily Blunt if Oppenheimer truly triumphs but doubtful.
Best Supporting Actor
Will and Should Win: It’s time for Robert Downey Jr. Right role, right time, right movie. Bloody good performance.
Could Upset: The Oscars aren’t going to give Ken an Oscar when Barbie wasn’t even nominated. The only jaw-dropping move could be Mark Ruffalo finally getting some love after going home empty so many times. But is it really going to be for Poor Things?
In Brief —
Best Adapted Screenplay — American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay — The Holdovers
Best Cinematography — Oppenheimer
Best Costume Design — Barbie
Best Film Editing — Oppenheimer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling — Maestro
Best Production Design — Poor Things
Best Score — Oppenheimer
Best Song — “What Was I Made For?” — Barbie
Best Sound — Oppenheimer
Best Visual Effects — Godzilla Minus One
Best Animated Feature — The Boy and the Heron
Best Documentary Feature — 20 Days in Mariupol
Best International Film — The Zone of Interest
Best Animated Short — War is Over!
Best Documentary Short — The ABCS of Book Banning
Best Live Action Short — The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
You go!